57%
- Record
- 20–1
- Age
- 30
- Reach
- 69"
- Height
- 5'8"
- 3-round
- 16-0
- 5-round
- 4-1
- Home · Russia
- 8-0
- Road
- 12-1 · tonight
- In China
- Debut here
Sheet pick
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
UFC Fight Night · Sat, August 29, 2026 · Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai, China
fight-nightupcoming--:--:--
Opened fight
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
43%
- Record
- 23–9–1 (1 NC)
- Age
- 28
- Reach
- 67"
- Height
- 5'8"
- 3-round
- 20-7-1
- 5-round
- 3-2
- Home · China
- 9-1 · tonight
- Road
- 14-8
- In China
- 2-0
The Sheet
LockedFrozen Sat, Aug 29, 2:45 AM ET· tape Aug 29, 2:45 AM· DK Aug 28, 4:00 PM· ran Aug 29, 2:55 AM
Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar Nurmagomedov grades 57% at 5×5. Driven by grapple, durability, finish pressure. Fade note: Yadong still holds in china. Exact pick: Nurmagomedov by submission. Over/under: Under 4.5 rounds. Yadong gets the country bump.
- RedNurmagomedov on grapple — Takedown chain and submission threat
- RedNurmagomedov on durability — How they lose
- BlueYadong on in china — Nurmagomedov 0–0 in China (debut) · Yadong 2–0 (2)
- RedNurmagomedov on finish pressure — KO/sub rate applied to the matchup
57% winnerNurmagomedov by submissionUnder 4.5 roundsInside round 3
Locked MMAI pick for this fight. Tracked on The Book.
Factor split
- FormLast five plus streak (R 1 / B 3)
- Last 3 adj.Last 3: 2–1 · 0 ranked opp · pace vs those rooms · Last 3: 3–0 · 0 ranked opp · pace vs those rooms
- StrikingOutput × accuracy vs. defense
- GrappleTakedown chain and submission threat
- Finish pressureKO/sub rate applied to the matchup
- DurabilityHow they lose
- Five-roundRecord and average length at this distance
- StyleSambo vs Boxer
- CageReach, height, age curve
- Home / roadYadong home soil
- In ChinaNurmagomedov 0–0 in China (debut) · Yadong 2–0 (2)
- Context10 mo layoff · first 5 in a while / first 5 in a while · 30' cage
- Common opponentsNo shared UFC opponents
- Vs the numberFav/dog close + UFC over/under (R 8–0 fav, 0–1 dog · O 8/9)
Finish mix
- Nurmagomedov sub30%
- Yadong dec19%
- Nurmagomedov dec15%
- Yadong KO/TKO14%
- Nurmagomedov KO/TKO12%
- Yadong sub10%
DraftKings board · reference
currentPublic lines for context. MMAI is not a sportsbook and does not take bets.
Moneyline
Nurmagomedov-535
Yadong+400
Total rounds 4.5 · official O/U
Over 4.5+110
Under 4.5-145
Distance
Goes the distance-112
Inside the distance-171
Winning method
KO/TKO+159
Submission+292
Decision-117
Winner by method
Nurmagomedov KO/TKO+800
Nurmagomedov sub+320
Nurmagomedov dec-110
Yadong KO/TKO+650
Yadong sub+1400
Yadong dec+700
Fight ends in round
R1+531
R2+1071
R3+1071
R4+1071
R5+273
Winner Umar Nurmagomedov · Exact Nurmagomedov by submission +320 · O/U Under 4.5 rounds -145
Auto desk · X wire
Watching UFC, fighter, and columnist feeds on X in near real time. Outs, weight misses, rebooks, and camp changes file themselves. Override below only if the wire is wrong.
@ufc · @danawhite · @arielhelwani · @mmajunkie · @mmafighting · @BrettOkamoto · @MikeBohn · @espnmma
No flag on this fight.
Manual override
Full card — tap a bout to open the sheet