The Book — UFC odds & picks

Live means this page recomputes the lean on load and every 45s while the card is unlocked. If an Odds API key is set, DraftKings is polled. Otherwise we use the last posted snapshot and stamp capturedAt. A 15¢ moneyline move can recut the lean. Lock freezes the close, not last week’s open.

Winner pick — tape (88–96%)

• Last 3 opponent-adjusted: quality of room, ranked vs unranked, pace vs those opponents
• Shared UFC opponents — who beat the same names, and who lost to them
• Days of rest, 5-round vs 3-round last time out, southpaw opponent, Apex 25' vs 30' cage, altitude
• Win streak
• Career KO / sub / decision wins and losses
• 3-round and 5-round records, average fight length
• Home vs road records vs this event country
• Record in the country they are fighting in this week (modest weight; debut is near-neutral)
• Title-fight count on 5-round cards
• SLpM, strike accuracy, strike defense, knockdown average
• Takedowns per 15, TD accuracy, TD defense, sub attempts
• Reach, height, age on the as-of date
• Primary and secondary style (wrestler, BJJ, striker…) — stylistic nightmares get extra weight
• This fight’s scheduled rounds (3×5 or 5×5)
• Vs the number: UFC closes as favorite or dog, W/L as a dog, method, and over/under

Winner pick — board (4–12%)

• DraftKings moneyline, last captured snapshot. Heavy chalk (−300 and longer) gets a smaller vote so juice cannot force the pick.

Live dog overlay

• We do not pick plus-money on a vibe. The dog needs a model win% of at least 46% and two independent trackable edges.
• Edges that count: style mismatch, last-3 quality, common opponents, home/country tape, durability, and a real UFC record as a dog (beats the number).
• If those stack, the official winner pick is the dog and the Book tags it Dog. One edge is not enough.

Exact method

• Winner by KO/TKO, submission, or decision — same fighter as the winner pick
• Best EV versus the DraftKings method prices

Underdog 3-pack

• Every card posts three plus-money names, ranked by tape on that dog (live edges first — not the longest shot)
• Each dog is its own single on the Dogs tab — not a parlay
• Locks with the card. A scratch voids that leg only

Over / under

• DraftKings total-rounds line (2.5 on three-rounders, 4.5 on five-rounders unless posted otherwise)
• Model expected rounds vs that line, logistic probability, then EV vs the DK over/under juice
• Each fighter’s historical over rate on UFC totals (2.5 / 4.5) blended in when enough fights are on file
• Over hits if the fight lasts longer than the line (R5 5:00 on 4.5 is over)

Unlocked sheets recalculate when you open or refocus The Book. Locked picks freeze 15 minutes before that card and never change. Grades file into History after the official decision. Canceled/scratched fights are void.